The Case for Utah - Part 3: Utah’s Changing Districts
From Gerrymandering to a Real Battleground
In our first installment, we gave an overview about why Utah is the Democratic Party’s next big opportunity (read that here). And in the second part, we talked about how Utah’s demographics are shifting fast (which you can read here).
But what good are demographic changes if the lines on the map don’t let voters translate their values into real political change? In part three, we’re diving into Utah’s ongoing struggle over district maps—and why it’s about to get a lot more interesting. There’s a big showdown coming, and the status quo is in trouble.
The Long Road to Fair Maps
For decades, Utah’s districts have been drawn by the very people running for office, and if you think that sounds like a conflict of interest, you’d be absolutely right. The state’s Republican majority has wielded redistricting like a club, bludgeoning political competition into submission. But to really understand where we’re heading, we need to know where we’ve been.
So let’s rewind a bit. Utah’s quest for fair districts isn’t new or unique, and it definitely didn’t start with Prop 4. Back in 2010, a group called Fair Boundaries pushed to create an independent redistricting commission. It flopped after falling short of the needed signatures, but it planted a seed that would grow into the much more successful Better Boundaries initiative in 2018.
By then, the winds of change were already blowing. Donald Trump’s 2016 win jolted people across the country into action, and Utah was no different. Citizen-led initiatives sprouted like dandelions. Fast forward to the 2018 election, and three big propositions landed on the ballot: Prop 2 (medical cannabis), Prop 3 (Medicaid expansion), and Prop 4 (anti-gerrymandering). Voters approved all three. But if you thought that was the end of the story, we’ve got a lot more twists and turns to come.
Redistricting Shenanigans
Proposition 4 didn’t exactly trigger a redistricting revolution. Instead, it became a prime target for the Utah Legislature. The same lawmakers who made Prop 2 and Prop 3 less accessible to Utahns had their sights set on Prop 4. But rather than gutting it immediately, they played a waiting game.
When the 2020 census wrapped up, the legislature called a special session in 2021 to draw new maps. The Independent Redistricting Commission had presented its fair maps, drawn after extensive public input. Yet, in a move that surprised absolutely no one, lawmakers discarded the commission’s maps and crafted their own. The final congressional districts were drawn with precision to split Salt Lake County into four pieces to dilute the Democratic vote.
State legislative districts weren’t much better. Democrats and some reform-minded Republicans voiced opposition, but when the chips were down, most Democrats reluctantly accepted the maps. Why? Because even though the maps weren’t fair, they were less disastrous for some incumbents than the commission’s maps, which proposed merging districts that would force sitting lawmakers to face off. The calculation seemed pretty straightforward: hold onto what power you can, even if it’s crumbs.
Legal Battles and the Path to Fair Maps
Not everyone was content to accept this outcome. In 2022, a coalition of reform groups, including the League of Women Voters and Mormon Women for Ethical Government, filed a lawsuit challenging the legislature’s maps as unconstitutional partisan gerrymanders. The legal fight dragged on, winding its way up to the State Supreme Court, which ruled in 2024 that the legislature couldn’t disregard ballot measures designed to reform government functions. With that decision, the lawsuit was sent back to the lower courts for a final ruling on the maps themselves. But the message was clear: Utah voters had a right to fair representation, and the legislature couldn’t just brush aside citizen initiatives.
So, What’s Next?
So, what’s on the horizon? Honestly, we don’t know exactly. The court will decide whether to enforce one of the Independent Redistricting Commission’s original maps or have the commission draw new ones. The timeline? That’s up in the air too. Best-case scenario, we see fair congressional districts in 2026. Worst-case? The GOP stalls things into 2028 or beyond. Will it be all of the maps or just the congressional ones? That too is a bit unknown. The lawsuit was only about the congressional maps, so it’s possible we have to wait until the next redistricting in 2032 if some other group doesn’t sue.
But make no mistake, change is coming. Once the lower courts finalize their ruling, it’s game on for the redistricting process. The legislature will probably fight tooth and nail, but they’re not fighting for victory—they’re fighting for time. The longer they can delay, the longer they can hold onto their power. But eventually, the courts will decide, and the lines will change.
Fair maps will make Utah’s congressional districts competitive again for the first time in what feels like forever. It’s a seismic shift that’ll ripple all the way down the ballot, sending shockwaves through state and local races. If you thought Utah politics were predictable, buckle up, because it’s about to get a whole lot more interesting.
What Fair Maps Mean for Utah
So, what’s the big deal? It’s not just about pretty lines on a map (although we love a good pretty map). When districts are drawn fairly, the impact goes far beyond who wins. Let’s consider what would happen even if we just get fair congressional maps.
A Whole Lot More Money Competitive districts attract attention and, more importantly, cash. National political organizations that previously ignored Utah will see the state as a battleground worth investing in. Back when Ben McAdams was in Congress, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spent millions on his races. Fair maps mean they’ll do it again, and that money doesn’t just go to TV ads. It funds voter outreach, get-out-the-vote efforts, and grassroots organizing, all of which help boost turnout across the board.
The Down-Ballot Domino Effect When a top-ticket race heats up, it lifts everything below it. More competitive congressional elections mean more energized volunteers, more door-knocking, more phone calls, and ultimately, more votes for down-ballot candidates. This coattail effect can help state house, state senate, and county candidates in ways they haven’t experienced in decades. In short, it’s not just about flipping one seat; it’s about building a stronger bench for the future.
A Shot at Actual Representation Fair maps mean that politicians have to actually work for their votes. Crazy idea, right? Instead of playing it safe, candidates will have to appeal to a broader audience, including independents and moderates outside of their party. This could bring some much-needed sanity back into Utah politics, forcing elected officials to be more responsive to their constituents rather than catering to their base.
Better Legislative Balance With fairer districts, we could finally see the Republican supermajority start to shrink. That doesn’t mean Democrats will take over (let’s not get too wild), but a more balanced legislature could lead to more meaningful debates, better policies, and maybe even—dare we say—compromise. Imagine a world where your representative actually has to listen to you because their seat isn’t guaranteed. Wild.
What This Means for Ballot Measures and Reform Efforts
One of the most significant side effects of the court’s ruling is the revival of direct democracy through ballot measures. With the courts affirming that the legislature cannot alter or block ballot measures that “alter or reform government”, we may see a resurgence of citizen-led propositions in Utah. This opens the door for a wide range of progressive reforms—think ranked-choice voting, ending the caucus system, or ethics reform—that could now be passed by popular vote without fear of legislative interference.
For those who’ve long felt that the legislature wasn’t listening to them, this ruling is a game-changer. It reaffirms that the people of Utah have the final say in shaping their government, and that’s a powerful tool for anyone looking to bring about real change.
The Bottom Line: Buckle Up, Utah
After years of gerrymandering and political maneuvering, Utah is on the brink of a redistricting revolution. Fair maps will transform not just who gets elected but also how politicians campaign, govern, and respond to the people. As the legal battles play out and new districts emerge, expect to see shifts at every level of government. The days of “set it and forget it” politics may be coming to an end, replaced by an era where every vote counts and every district is in play.
So keep your eyes on the courts, watch out for more shenanigans from the legislature, and maybe—just maybe—start getting used to the idea of a politically competitive Utah. Because once fair maps are in place, anything is possible. Even here.
But it’s only possible with your support. Chip in to support Elevate PAC and flip our state blue.
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Um, is this the same Elevate PAC that tries to get republican women elected? (https://elevate-pac.com/). I assume not.