The Case for Utah: The Nation’s Next Battleground State

An Introduction to the Series

Utah: More Than Just Red Rocks and Red Votes?

Utah: land of picturesque mountains, endless red rocks, and, of course, Republican voters as far as the eye can see. I mean, when you hear “battleground state,” Utah probably doesn’t even make your top 50. Cause let’s be real, Utah hasn’t elected a Democratic candidate statewide since 1997. It’s the electoral equivalent of a slightly too-long hug from your ultra-conservative uncle at Thanksgiving—uncomfortable but predictable.

But guess what? Things are changing, and the state's political future might not be as buttoned-up and conservative as everyone thinks.

Utah’s Millennials and Gen Z: The Real Silent Majority

When most people think of Utah, they think of Mormons or the cast of The Real Housewives of Salt Lake (fact check: all of them live in Park City), but that stereotype is on its last legs. 

First off, Utah is the youngest state in the nation. That’s right—the median age here is basically middle-aged-millennial - 32 years old. Second, the state is growing faster than your list of unread Kamala Harris fundraising emails, with new residents flooding in from places that aren’t exactly hotbeds of right-wing conservatism. Finally, add to the fact that younger LDS voters are steadily shifting to the left, things are starting to shake up. 

The times, they are a-changin', and Utah’s political landscape is on the verge of a plot twist that could make it unrecognizable to its longtime conservative fanbase. 

Bye-Bye, Gerrymandered Safe Spaces

But wait, there’s more. Just when you thought Utah politics couldn’t get more interesting, the state’s Supreme Court decided to throw a wrench into the GOP’s plan by cracking down on partisan gerrymandering. That’s right—no more drawing districts to keep elections as exciting as lopsided as a see-saw with an elephant on one end. Add in the fact that lawmakers can no longer obliterate ballot measures that “alter or reform the function of government“ (AKA change how the government governs), and suddenly, Utah’s future elections might actually be, you know, competitive. Shocking, right?

Utah’s Red Wall? More Like Swiss Cheese

And here’s the kicker: Even the GOP isn’t feeling as invincible as it used to. Turns out, younger Republicans—and the folks moving here—aren’t exactly lining up to join the MAGA fan club. That’s right, the state’s famous libertarian-leaning conservatism doesn’t exactly vibe with the whole Trumpian “authoritarian populism” thing. And surprise, surprise—when your party stops looking like a serious political force and more like a reality TV farce, people start rethinking their choices.

Spoiler: Utah Could Actually Swing (but not like the Secret Life of Mormon Wives. Relax.)

Utah could actually become a battleground state if enough of us cared enough to, you know, try. Republicans are out here taking their victories for granted, treating the state like a prize they’ve already won. Meanwhile, Democrats treat Utah like an afterthought—probably because they’d rather throw money at Florida and lose there instead. But guess what? Utah isn’t the political wasteland everyone assumes it is. With the right strategy (and a lot of cash), Utah could actually flip.

Now, don’t get too excited—Utah isn’t about to turn into the next Wisconsin or Georgia just yet. But the ingredients for a battleground state are slowly coming together. Utah is where Georgia was a decade ago, or say Colorado in the mid-90s - a bad place, but a place with potential—things are in motion. 

Demographics are shifting, political ideologies are evolving, and that steady GOP dominance? If things keep moving in this direction, Utah could actually become a political battleground state in the next decade. You heard it here first.

Coming Up Next…

So here’s the deal: this series is going to break down exactly why you should care about Utah politics. First, we’ll dive into the state’s changing demographics—because it turns out that a bunch of new, young, and diverse people moving in can totally mess with political norms. Couple that with the fact that the Republican Party isn’t exactly what it used to be and baby, you’ve got a stew going. Then, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of Utah’s new districts and how fair redistricting could make this place way more interesting. Finally, we’ll look at campaigns—because the people running for office are getting smarter, faster, and more professional (well, some of them are).

Utah isn’t just a conservative safe space anymore. If you’re not paying attention, you’re going to miss one of the biggest political plot twists in recent history. Stay tuned—it’s about to get good.

In the meantime though, will you chip in to help us change Utah?

Also, donate to some super cool candidates: https://app.oath.vote/set?p=utah

Elevate PAC is working to eliminate single-party control at all levels of our state’s government by elevating inspirational leaders, activating the new Utah majority, and centering our shared values and common purpose.

Our blueprint is to recruit and train candidates, invest early, support strategically, and build relationships.

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