Will Taylor Swift’s Endorsement of Kamala Harris Make a Difference?
And what that means for Utah
A lot of ink and tweets have been spilled since VP Harris and Trump’s first (and maybe only) debate. One of the most talked about parts of that night though wasn’t a part of the debate, it was what came after: Taylor Swift’s long-awaited endorsement.
Now, as much as we love Taylor, we’re not naive enough to think that a celebrity endorsement can single-handedly change the trajectory of a presidential race. Politics, like love, is messy (“All Too Well,” anyone?), and this election will be won in the narrow margins of key battleground states. In 2020, Joe Biden barely won six of the seven critical swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. His combined margin of victory across these states was razor-thin—just over 44,000 votes in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone.
Kamala Harris faces the daunting task of pulling together the same coalitions her predecessor did and maintaining that slim edge - so the big question is can Taylor Swift’s endorsement help tip the balance in her favor?
Endorsements: The Bigger the Race, the Smaller the Impact
Let’s start by talking about endorsements in general. In low-saliency elections—those local races that barely make it to the news—endorsements can have a big impact. Voters in these elections often lack information, and a big name endorsement, like “the 1”, can serve as a shortcut to a decision. Research shows that endorsements can sway as much as 5-10% of the vote in these kinds of contests.
But in high-saliency elections, like a presidential race, things work differently. These are elections where voters are inundated with news, ads, and constant information. By the time November rolls around, most voters have made up their minds. In these cases, endorsements have less sway—they’re more likely to reinforce existing preferences than change anyone’s mind. So, in a race as high-profile as the 2024 presidential election, the direct impact of Taylor Swift’s endorsement might be “delicate.”
However, don’t throw “This Is Me Trying” on repeat just yet. There’s more to this story, and it lies in who Taylor Swift reaches: young voters.
Swifties: A Young, Engaged Voter Base
If you’ve been to any of Taylor’s Eras tour concerts—or at least spent hours on Ticketmaster trying to get tickets like us—you know that Swift’s fanbase skews young. According to a survey from Statista, about two-thirds of her fans are under the age of 40. And while younger voters generally lean Democratic, there’s a catch—they also vote less frequently than older generations.
In the 2020 election, about 55-60% of voters aged 18-40 cast a ballot, while turnout among those aged 40 and older was around 70-75%. That’s a significant gap, and it’s precisely where Taylor Swift’s influence could matter most. If she can help energize younger voters—many of whom are casual voters or first-time participants—her endorsement might move the needle in the tightest of races.
And let’s not forget: Taylor has already shown her political clout. After she encouraged voter registration on Instagram in 2018, Vote.org saw a 65,000-person spike in voter registrations within 24 hours. In 2020, Taylor was even more vocal, urging her fans to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Her influence was noticeable, especially among younger voters, who played a pivotal role in Biden’s victories in places like Georgia and Arizona.
This year though, Taylor drove over 400,000 visitors to vote.gov - over 13 times their normal visits! And the effect has spilled over to other voter registration organizations. The CEO of the League of Women Voters said that while most visitors to their website Vote411.org have been 55-65-year-olds, in the days following Taylor’s endorsement, the highest age group using the platform was 18-24-year-olds.
“You Need to Calm Down” (But Also, Go Vote)
Taylor’s fanbase is also notably passionate and engaged. There’s something about Taylor’s authenticity and vulnerability that makes her fans feel connected to her in a deeply personal way. When she tells her fans to get registered and vote, they listen. After all, it’s the same fanbase that made “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” a chart-topping hit.
Taylor has consistently used her platform to promote political engagement, particularly among young women and the LGBTQ+ community. And it’s not just lip service; Taylor puts action behind her words. From her public fight for LGBTQ+ rights with “You Need to Calm Down” to her 2020 Miss Americana documentary that highlighted her political awakening, Swift has made it clear that she sees voting as a crucial act of empowerment.
One important factor to consider here is that studies show voters who vote consistently in two or three elections are much more likely to become lifelong voters. In other words, if Taylor can get her fans to show up in 2024, they’re more likely to keep showing up in 2026, 2028, and beyond. That’s the kind of long-term impact that could reshape American politics for years to come.
The Margins Are Everything in 2024
Of course, no amount of star power can replace a good old-fashioned campaign strategy. Kamala Harris will still need to run a strong campaign, particularly in those crucial swing states where the margins are razor-thin. Biden won Arizona by just 0.3% and Georgia by 0.2%. These are states where a slight increase in turnout from younger voters could make all the difference.
But let’s be clear: Taylor Swift’s endorsement alone won’t win this election for Harris. Elections are complex, and they’re determined by a combination of factors, including the economy, voter turnout, and campaign strategy. Swift’s impact will be marginal, but in an election this close, even the margins matter.
What’s This Mean for Utah?
You knew we were going to bring up Utah, right? Utah is the Union’s youngest state and fastest growing. We’ve got hoards of swifties, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking Taylor is flipping Utah in 2024. We firmly believe that Utah is the next battleground state, but that’s about 8 or 10 years out (maybe we’ll write about that next).
So, if Utah isn’t flipping for Kamala because of this, what’s the point? Well, just like Harris will see the impact in swing states, we should expect to see the same thing in battleground districts in Utah. Candidates like John Arthur, Rosemary Lesser, and Jake Fitisemanu are all running strong races (and are all candidates Elevate PAC is supporting) that are likely to be decided in the margins.
Utah has a history of closely decided races. In 2016, Suzanne Harrison lost her first State House race by 5 votes out of almost 30,000, and in 2021 Sandy Mayor Monica Zoltanski won her first bid for mayor by 21 votes out of 21,000. So Taylor’s voter registration drive won’t win these races alone, but that’s where good candidates come in.
One more point. For decades, Utah has lacked competitive elections. We all know, lack of competition leads to apathy, something young Utahns have in bounds. But increasing excitement, voter registration, and hope might just make Utah change faster than anyone might expect.
Final Thoughts: The Swift Effect
In the end, Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris might not be a game-changer on its own, but in a race that’s likely to be decided by narrow margins, every little bit helps. Harris doesn’t need Swift to win the election outright—she just needs her to push a few more young voters to the polls in those key battleground states. And if there’s one thing Taylor Swift knows how to do, it’s turn out a crowd.
So, will Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris be enough to tip the scales? Maybe not by itself, but in a campaign of inches, every step counts. And if Swift’s Reputation is any indication, she knows exactly how to make a lasting impact. For Harris, that could be the difference between victory and defeat in 2024. Taylor Swift once said, "I’ve been the archer, I’ve been the prey." In this case, she’s the archer—aiming for those crucial young voters in the battleground states.
Since Taylor Swift herself can’t flip Utah, that’s where we come in. Elevate PAC is focused on supporting candidates up and down the ballot in Utah where just a few votes could decide the winner. This work isn’t cheap, and we’re hoping you could chip in even $25 to support our mission.
Elevate PAC is working to eliminate single-party control at all levels of our state’s government by elevating inspirational leaders, activating the new Utah majority, and centering our shared values and common purpose.
Our blueprint is to recruit and train candidates, invest early, support strategically, and build relationships.
Paid for by Elevate PAC